WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reiterated its projection that the global economy will expand by about 3.3 % in 2026, but cautioned that this resilience is fragile and should not be assumed permanent, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook update.
In its January 2026 outlook, the IMF raised its global growth forecast slightly from its October 2025 estimate and maintained the same pace as in 2025. The Fund said growth is being supported by technology investment, private sector adaptability, accommodative financial conditions and fiscal support.
Despite the stronger outlook, the IMF warned that risks remain, including the potential for a reevaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) productivity gains, renewed trade tensions, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts, all of which could undermine growth if favourable conditions change.
The IMF emphasized that while sectors such as technology have buoyed activity, the overall resilience of the global economy continues to depend on a narrow set of drivers and strong institutional frameworks, including independent central banks and sound governance.
The warning underscores policymakers’ concerns that economic strength must be supported by structural reforms and risk management, rather than assumed to continue uninterrupted.
Originally Published By: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Business Inside
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